Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.007206 0.008111 0.009102 0.010267 0.011605 0.013095 0.014885
2024-11-03 0.005755 0.006978 0.008433 0.010301 0.012650 0.015527 0.019347
2024-11-10 0.005132 0.006539 0.008310 0.010723 0.013960 0.018199 0.024248
2024-11-17 0.004477 0.005928 0.007835 0.010559 0.014405 0.019721 0.027771
2024-11-24 0.004044 0.005534 0.007568 0.010596 0.015068 0.021557 0.031923
2024-12-01 0.003621 0.005096 0.007175 0.010381 0.015304 0.022757 0.035243
2024-12-08 0.003391 0.004901 0.007096 0.010598 0.016184 0.024999 0.040480
2024-12-15 0.003137 0.004640 0.006888 0.010582 0.016680 0.026671 0.044991
2024-12-22 0.002814 0.004245 0.006433 0.010123 0.016392 0.027001 0.047191
2024-12-29 0.002621 0.004033 0.006243 0.010067 0.016760 0.028468 0.051630
2025-01-05 0.002561 0.004024 0.006371 0.010549 0.018100 0.031800 0.060087
2025-01-12 0.002343 0.003740 0.006023 0.010174 0.017864 0.032208 0.062822
2025-01-19 0.002162 0.003509 0.005755 0.009932 0.017876 0.033148 0.066939
2025-01-26 0.002044 0.003377 0.005646 0.009969 0.018427 0.035224 0.073876
2025-02-02 0.001995 0.003359 0.005734 0.010376 0.019740 0.039004 0.085287
2025-02-09 0.001867 0.003190 0.005537 0.010218 0.019895 0.040381 0.091363
2025-02-16 0.001778 0.003085 0.005445 0.010254 0.020452 0.042694 0.100133
2025-02-23 0.001665 0.002927 0.005242 0.010047 0.020462 0.043779 0.105986
2025-03-02 0.001614 0.002879 0.005243 0.010255 0.021402 0.047125 0.118434
2025-03-09 0.001539 0.002783 0.005142 0.010240 0.021836 0.049333 0.128232
2025-03-16 0.001423 0.002597 0.004853 0.009798 0.021241 0.048944 0.130581
2025-03-23 0.001357 0.002507 0.004748 0.009743 0.021550 0.050866 0.140119
2025-03-30 0.001349 0.002530 0.004872 0.010208 0.023159 0.056372 0.161826